On June 13, 2025, the EPA under the Trump Administration unveiled a significant expansion of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) for 2026–2027. While it still must be approved, the proposed rule strongly encourages domestic biofuel production, aiming to reduce reliance on foreign feedstocks and imports, with an estimated offset of ~150,000 barrels per day in oil imports and key targets for:

• Total biofuel blending: 24.02 billion gallons (2026) and 24.46 billion gallons (2027), up from 22.33 billion gallons in 2025
• Biomass-based diesel: 5.61 billion gallons (2026) and 5.86 billion gallons (2027), a roughly 67–75% increase
• RIN adjustments: Reduces RINs generated per gallon for biodiesel from ~1.6 to 1.27–1.28, specifically to penalize imports and favor U.S. feedstocks  

Potential Gains - and Challenges. There’s Plenty to Go Around

We’ve already fielded inquiries from clients concerned about the effect of these new standards. It’s clear the impact could be wide across energy and commodity trading.

Oil refiners could face new upfront costs, compliance demands, logistical upgrades and infrastructure challenges. Refiners must either blend higher volumes or purchase RIN credits, now more favorable for U.S.-sourced biofuels. That will require logistical scaling, including upgrading blender pumps, storage tanks, and quality systems to handle biodiesel and renewable diesel at scale.

We could also see RIN valuation shifts, as lesser value on imported RINs means biofuels from domestic sources are more attractive, altering market dynamics. Exemption pressures will also come into play, as over 160 small-refinery exemption requests are under review. And cost and fuel pricing will be in the spotlight, as increased blend mandates could nudge downstream fuel prices slightly higher—though regulators argue benefits like rural growth and energy security outweigh these impacts.

Biofuel makers and farmers, specifically ethanol and biodiesel producers, could be pressured by feedstock costs and environmental scrutiny. But stabilized and/or rising demand from refiners and an investment-friendly climate could lead to increased capacity utilization—and potential reactivation of idled plants. The rule provides regulatory certainty for investment in new or upgraded biofuel facilities. As a result – it’s likely we begin to see the major players producing more ethanol, and fast.

Soybean and corn farmers could see the most encouraging outcome, experiencing a positive price catalyst. Soybean oil (biodiesel feedstock) prices surged on the news of the proposed rule, and corn ethanol programs historically raised corn prices by 12–30%, benefitting farmers.

Finally, rural communities and farm-dependent regions could struggle with community equity concerns and environmental tradeoffs – but those could be offset by new job creation in agriculture, crushing plants, and biofuel facilities. There are also likely to be many indirect benefits from increased local activity, including equipment and transport services, feedstock logistics, and construction.

Factoring in the Environmental and Socioeconomic Considerations

How should we factor food vs fuel? Higher corn and soybean demand can tighten food markets. Studies on RFS-induced food price increases are mixed—some show moderate impact, others a rise in food prices attributed to biofuels. Increased cropland and fertilizer use also have environmental repercussions, including potential GHG and water-quality impacts. Assessments also suggest corn-ethanol may not be significantly cleaner than gasoline when considering land-use changes. And as the proposal penalizes imported biodiesel and feedstocks (e.g. cooking oil), it could realign incentives for domestic feedstock. This is consistent with broader rural and farming interests, especially since Midwest farmers have historically protested over import-driven market flooding.

How Refiners Can Prepare

Refiners can begin by taking a few critical steps to ensure they will be on the right side of the proposal:

• Review inventory and contracts to secure domestic biofuel supply agreements and invest in feedstock partnerships.
• Explore facility upgrades so they are prepared to retrofit or build blending and storage infrastructure to handle increased throughput.
• Reassess RIN management and enhance systems for tracking, retiring, and trading RIN credits.
• Carefully monitor policy to track the final rule, small-refinery waivers, and any legal shifts in RIN calculations or import adjustments.

How to Meet New Biofuel Mandates for 2026 – 2027? Embrace the Right Technology –Now

As the U.S. biofuel landscape becomes more complex, companies across the energy and agriculture sectors need reliable solutions to stay compliant, optimize operations, and make smart supply chain decisions. What’s needed is a modern solution that allows energy and commodity players to manage grains and liquids in one comprehensive platform that can simplify commodity trading, risk, logistics and operations across the value chain. That means finding the right E/CTRM provider that can work with you to help you manage:

Supply Chain Optimization for Domestic Feedstocks. With the new rule discouraging imports, refiners and producers must pivot toward U.S.-sourced ethanol, biodiesel, soybean oil, and other feedstocks. This requires advanced analytics that can help:

• Identify reliable domestic suppliers based on proximity, price, and sustainability metrics.
• Model transportation routes to minimize logistics costs and ensure timely delivery.
• Forecast supply availability based on harvest data, crushing capacity, and seasonal trends.

Real-Time Compliance Monitoring. Navigating Renewable Identification Number (RIN) markets and blending obligations is a challenge—even more so under a revamped Renewable Fuel Standard. You will need a compliance dashboard that offers:

• Real-time RIN tracking (generation, trading, retirement).
• Automated alerts for blending thresholds, deadlines, and credit balances.
• Integration with EPA guidelines to help reduce the risk of non-compliance penalties.

Infrastructure Planning Tools: Meeting higher blend targets may require capital investment in blending, storage, and transport infrastructure. That means decision-makers will need to:

• Evaluate return on investment (ROI) for new or retrofitted biofuel facilities.
• Model plant-level biofuel handling scenarios (e.g., B20, E85) to align with regional fuel demand.
• Simulate long-term benefits of infrastructure upgrades under different policy scenarios.

Market Intelligence for Strategic Advantage. Policy-driven shifts create opportunities—but only for stakeholders who can act on reliable, real-time intelligence. Users must be equipped with:

• Price forecasting for corn, soybean oil, renewable diesel, and RINs.
• Policy watch modules that track EPA rulemakings, trade shifts, and court decisions.
• Competitive benchmarking to identify how peers are adapting to regulatory changes.

The Road Ahead

While the proposal still must go through the public comment process and could be changed before regulatory approval, it marks a bold shift: it challenges refiners to rethink their fuel mix, presses producers to scale up domestic output, and could offer a major tailwind to rural America. Now is the time for every participant in the energy and commodity trading value chain to carefully evaluate their operations. Only by ensuring they have the data, tools and insights to navigate this RFS transition will they be able to quickly adapt and evolve their business to stay ahead of the curve and drive more profitability.